Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Rios
Anthony Avila
78%
22%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rafael Rios
Anthony Avila
39
Sig strikes landed
44
91
Sig strikes attempted
95
55
Total strikes landed
65
2.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
5.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
159s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rafael Rios
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Anthony Avila
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Age
22