Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Terry
Josh Thornburg
90%
10%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
20-9
Career record
Δ 22 pp
8-9
W2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
James Terry
Josh Thornburg
48
Sig strikes landed
30
113
Sig strikes attempted
103
57
Total strikes landed
40
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
James Terry
"Intensity"
20-9
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
L
Strikeforce Challengers 6
—
Blue corner
L1
Josh Thornburg
8-9
Career record
Height
72"
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Feijao vs. Hender…
—