Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
David Douglas
Caros Fodor
70%
30%
Why
30
Age
Δ 2y
27
10-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-6
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
David Douglas
Caros Fodor
36
Sig strikes landed
39
101
Sig strikes attempted
104
37
Total strikes landed
45
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
105s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
David Douglas
"Tarzan"
10-7
Career record
Height
71"
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce Challengers 14
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 11
—
Blue corner
W2
Caros Fodor
"The Future"
12-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce Challengers 12
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 9
—