Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lorenz Larkin
Scott Lighty
93%
7%
Why
25
Age
Δ 8y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Larkin: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Lighty: 24 sig / 0 TD
Lorenz Larkin
Scott Lighty
45
Sig strikes landed
42
107
Sig strikes attempted
96
64
Total strikes landed
60
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
171s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Scott Lighty
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Age
33