Lightweight
Gesias Cavalcante vs Justin Wilcox
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gesias Cavalcante
Justin Wilcox
71%
29%
Why
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
21-11-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
15-7
L1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 2
Cavalcante: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Wilcox: 27 sig / 0 TD
Gesias Cavalcante
Justin Wilcox
33
Sig strikes landed
38
86
Sig strikes attempted
82
56
Total strikes landed
45
2.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
7.0
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
166s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gesias Cavalcante
"JZ"
21-11-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Justin Wilcox
"Silverback"
15-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
Strikeforce Challengers 15
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 12
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 7
—