Back to Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
Heavyweight

Valentijn Overeem vs Chad Griggs

Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum ·American Airlines Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Valentijn Overeem
Chad Griggs
27% 73%
Why
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
31-32
Career record
Δ 31 pp
12-3
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Overeem: 1 sig / 0 TD · Griggs: 12 sig / 1 TD
Valentijn Overeem
Chad Griggs
33
Sig strikes landed
24
134
Sig strikes attempted
62
37
Total strikes landed
23
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
26s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
80%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Valentijn Overeem

31-32
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
W2

Chad Griggs

"The Grave Digger"
12-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva
—
W Strikeforce - Houston
—