Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
KJ Noons
Jorge Masvidal
23%
77%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
27
13-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
36-17
L1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Noons: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Masvidal: 73 sig / 7 TD
KJ Noons
Jorge Masvidal
51
Sig strikes landed
67
155
Sig strikes attempted
165
58
Total strikes landed
78
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
63s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
KJ Noons
"King"
13-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce - Houston
—
W
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—
Blue corner
W1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Feijao vs. Hender…
—