Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Barnett
Brett Rogers
88%
12%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
82"
34
Age
Δ 3y
30
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Barnett: 10 sig / 2 TD ·
Rogers: 2 sig / 0 TD
Josh Barnett
Brett Rogers
33
Sig strikes landed
41
61
Sig strikes attempted
112
53
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
118s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Barnett
"The Warmaster"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
L1
Brett Rogers
"The Grim"
17-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
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