Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem vs Fabricio Werdum
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Fabricio Werdum
88%
12%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
48-19
Career record
Δ 0 pp
25-9-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Overeem: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Werdum: 43 sig / 1 TD
Alistair Overeem
Fabricio Werdum
28
Sig strikes landed
24
65
Sig strikes attempted
79
49
Total strikes landed
42
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
80s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—
Blue corner
W1
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
25-9-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
—