Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Herman Terrado
AJ Matthews
92%
8%
Why
22
Age
Δ 2y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Herman Terrado
AJ Matthews
49
Sig strikes landed
38
110
Sig strikes attempted
102
69
Total strikes landed
46
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
184s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Herman Terrado
0-0
Career record
Age
22
Blue corner
AJ Matthews
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
23