Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Duarte
Saad Awad
74%
26%
Why
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Joe Duarte
Saad Awad
42
Sig strikes landed
46
100
Sig strikes attempted
115
61
Total strikes landed
64
2.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
141s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joe Duarte
0-0
Career record
Age
34
Blue corner
Saad Awad
"Assassin"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
28