Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Hiroyuki Takaya
Robert Peralta
37%
63%
Why
34
Age
Δ 9y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Takaya: 45 sig / 3 TD ·
Peralta: 81 sig / 0 TD
Hiroyuki Takaya
Robert Peralta
35
Sig strikes landed
41
74
Sig strikes attempted
87
51
Total strikes landed
57
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
141s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Hiroyuki Takaya
"Streetfight Bancho"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Robert Peralta
"Problems"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25