Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shinya Aoki
Lyle Beerbohm
84%
16%
Why
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
39-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-4
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Aoki: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Beerbohm: 1 sig / 0 TD
Shinya Aoki
Lyle Beerbohm
29
Sig strikes landed
32
64
Sig strikes attempted
55
43
Total strikes landed
39
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
175s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
58%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Shinya Aoki
"Tobikan Judan"
39-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
L1
Lyle Beerbohm
"Fancy Pants"
24-4
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce Challengers 14
—
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—