Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Keith Jardine
98%
2%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
26
Age
Δ 10y
35
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Mousasi: 73 sig / 3 TD ·
Jardine: 18 sig / 6 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Keith Jardine
46
Sig strikes landed
35
111
Sig strikes attempted
91
56
Total strikes landed
43
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
190s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gegard Mousasi
42-7-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
Keith Jardine
"The Dean of Mean"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35