Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Gilbert Melendez
Tatsuya Kawajiri
39%
61%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Melendez: 33 sig / 2 TD ·
Kawajiri: 6 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Melendez
Tatsuya Kawajiri
46
Sig strikes landed
48
174
Sig strikes attempted
111
100
Total strikes landed
60
3.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
309s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
23-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33