Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nick Diaz
Paul Daley
40%
60%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
27-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
40-15-2
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Diaz: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Daley: 20 sig / 0 TD
Nick Diaz
Paul Daley
77
Sig strikes landed
68
165
Sig strikes attempted
168
93
Total strikes landed
66
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
82s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Nick Diaz
27-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce - Miami
—
Blue corner
W1
Paul Daley
"Semtex"
40-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Bab…
—