Prelims2
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau vs Rafaello Oliveira
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gleison Tibau
Rafaello Oliveira
76%
24%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
28
Age
Δ 2y
29
34-14
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-9
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Tibau: 19 sig / 3 TD ·
Oliveira: 12 sig / 0 TD
Gleison Tibau
Rafaello Oliveira
37
Sig strikes landed
28
93
Sig strikes attempted
84
55
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
121s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gleison Tibau
34-14
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
L1
Rafaello Oliveira
"Tractor"
17-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—