Prelims2
Bantamweight
Michael McDonald vs Chris Cariaso
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael McDonald
Chris Cariaso
80%
20%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
64"
20
Age
Δ 10y
30
18-4
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
McDonald: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Cariaso: 44 sig / 1 TD
Michael McDonald
Chris Cariaso
60
Sig strikes landed
43
143
Sig strikes attempted
124
70
Total strikes landed
52
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
121s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
18-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
18-8
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—