Back to UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Cole Escovedo vs Renan Barao

UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Cole Escovedo
Renan Barao
15% 85%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 5y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Escovedo: 29 sig / 0 TD · Barao: 46 sig / 6 TD
Cole Escovedo
Renan Barao
35
Sig strikes landed
40
81
Sig strikes attempted
81
48
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
100s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Cole Escovedo

"Apache Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner

Renan Barao

"The Baron"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24