Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Thiago Alves
Rick Story
45%
55%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
24-15
Career record
Δ 7 pp
20-9
W1
Current streak
W4
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alves: 41 sig / 1 TD ·
Story: 62 sig / 4 TD
Thiago Alves
Rick Story
47
Sig strikes landed
54
124
Sig strikes attempted
136
67
Total strikes landed
76
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
7.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
48s
Control time
206s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
24-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W4
Rick Story
"The Horror"
20-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—