Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Frank Mir
Roy Nelson
64%
36%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 6"
73"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
19-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
22-15
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mir: 46 sig / 6 TD ·
Nelson: 21 sig / 0 TD
Frank Mir
Roy Nelson
35
Sig strikes landed
27
72
Sig strikes attempted
62
51
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
130s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Frank Mir
19-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L1
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22-15
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—