Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marc Cofer
Mitch Whitesel
93%
7%
Why
39
Age
Δ 9y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Marc Cofer
Mitch Whitesel
55
Sig strikes landed
48
110
Sig strikes attempted
120
77
Total strikes landed
62
3.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
5.3
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
171s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marc Cofer
0-0
Career record
Age
39
Blue corner
Mitch Whitesel
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
30