Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
JP Felty
John Kuhner
75%
25%
Why
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
JP Felty
John Kuhner
39
Sig strikes landed
39
93
Sig strikes attempted
96
49
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
134s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
JP Felty
0-0
Career record
Age
32
Blue corner
John Kuhner
0-0
Career record
Age
28