Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ian Rammel
Brian Rogers
69%
31%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ian Rammel
Brian Rogers
40
Sig strikes landed
43
105
Sig strikes attempted
106
49
Total strikes landed
58
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ian Rammel
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
26
Blue corner
Brian Rogers
"The Professional Predator"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
27