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Lightweight

Billy Evangelista vs Jorge Masvidal

Strikeforce - Feijao vs. Henderson ·Nationwide Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Billy Evangelista
Jorge Masvidal
31% 69%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Evangelista: 31 sig / 1 TD · Masvidal: 56 sig / 3 TD
Billy Evangelista
Jorge Masvidal
30
Sig strikes landed
37
65
Sig strikes attempted
82
47
Total strikes landed
50
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
193s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Billy Evangelista

14-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W Strikeforce Challengers 11
—
Blue corner

Jorge Masvidal

"Gamebred"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26