Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roger Bowling
Josh Thornburg
86%
14%
Why
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bowling: 47 sig / 4 TD ·
Thornburg: 18 sig / 2 TD
Roger Bowling
Josh Thornburg
41
Sig strikes landed
40
101
Sig strikes attempted
106
59
Total strikes landed
50
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
172s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Roger Bowling
"Relentless"
12-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce Challengers 11
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 8
—
Blue corner
Josh Thornburg
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
27