Main
Light Heavyweight
Vladimir Matyushenko vs Jason Brilz
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
·Rogers Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Vladimir Matyushenko
Jason Brilz
55%
45%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
40
Age
Δ 4y
36
28-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
22-7-1
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Matyushenko: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Brilz: 1 sig / 0 TD
Vladimir Matyushenko
Jason Brilz
26
Sig strikes landed
24
65
Sig strikes attempted
55
41
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Vladimir Matyushenko
"The Janitor"
28-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Jason Brilz
"Hitman"
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—