Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lyoto Machida
Randy Couture
86%
14%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
33
Age
Δ 15y
48
24-9
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-11
L2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Machida: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Couture: 5 sig / 0 TD
Lyoto Machida
Randy Couture
16
Sig strikes landed
20
44
Sig strikes attempted
40
33
Total strikes landed
44
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Randy Couture
"The Natural"
20-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
48
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—