Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Nate Diaz
Rory MacDonald
36%
64%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
26
Age
Δ 4y
22
22-14
Career record
Δ 18 pp
19-5
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Diaz: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
MacDonald: 42 sig / 7 TD
Nate Diaz
Rory MacDonald
38
Sig strikes landed
48
105
Sig strikes attempted
106
68
Total strikes landed
62
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
90s
Control time
224s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nate Diaz
22-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
19-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—