Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Sean Pierson
79%
21%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
26
Age
Δ 9y
35
32-15
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-6
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ellenberger: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Pierson: 3 sig / 0 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Sean Pierson
47
Sig strikes landed
57
127
Sig strikes attempted
113
61
Total strikes landed
59
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
142s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
32-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Sean Pierson
"The Punisher"
15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—