🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
·Rogers Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Mark Hominick
90%
10%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Aldo: 94 sig / 5 TD ·
Hominick: 71 sig / 1 TD
Jose Aldo
Mark Hominick
35
Sig strikes landed
38
102
Sig strikes attempted
80
45
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.60
Knockdowns
0.40
134s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
72%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jose Aldo
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
W1
Mark Hominick
"The Machine"
21-12
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
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