Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Roberts
Claude Patrick
37%
63%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
16-7
Career record
Δ 19 pp
15-2
W3
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Roberts: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Patrick: 29 sig / 4 TD
Daniel Roberts
Claude Patrick
7
Sig strikes landed
19
32
Sig strikes attempted
45
20
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
289s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Daniel Roberts
"Ninja"
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W2
Claude Patrick
"The Prince"
15-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—