Back to UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Ivan Menjivar vs Charlie Valencia

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields ·Rogers Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ivan Menjivar
Charlie Valencia
80% 20%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 0"
64"
29
Age
Δ 8y
36

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Menjivar: 8 sig / 0 TD · Valencia: 5 sig / 0 TD
Ivan Menjivar
Charlie Valencia
41
Sig strikes landed
30
80
Sig strikes attempted
64
58
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ivan Menjivar

"The Pride of El Salvador"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Charlie Valencia

0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37