Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jason MacDonald
Ryan Jensen
39%
61%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
25-17
Career record
Δ 10 pp
21-9
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
MacDonald: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Jensen: 0 sig / 0 TD
Jason MacDonald
Ryan Jensen
25
Sig strikes landed
27
47
Sig strikes attempted
61
37
Total strikes landed
44
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
41s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jason MacDonald
"The Athlete"
25-17
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Ryan Jensen
21-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—