Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Makdessi
Kyle Watson
72%
28%
Why
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
19-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
14-8-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Makdessi: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Watson: 25 sig / 0 TD
John Makdessi
Kyle Watson
52
Sig strikes landed
50
114
Sig strikes attempted
127
57
Total strikes landed
59
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
46s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Kyle Watson
14-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—