Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Yves Jabouin
Pablo Garza
49%
51%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Jabouin: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Garza: 26 sig / 0 TD
Yves Jabouin
Pablo Garza
24
Sig strikes landed
29
53
Sig strikes attempted
77
47
Total strikes landed
39
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
168s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yves Jabouin
"Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
W1
Pablo Garza
"The Scarecrow"
13-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
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