Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jon Madsen
Mike Russow
48%
52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
9-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-3
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Madsen: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Russow: 14 sig / 3 TD
Jon Madsen
Mike Russow
18
Sig strikes landed
25
42
Sig strikes attempted
56
14
Total strikes landed
38
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
60s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
77%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jon Madsen
9-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W1
Mike Russow
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—