Featherweight
Alex Caceres vs Mackens Semerzier
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Mackens Semerzier
72%
28%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
23
Age
Δ 8y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Caceres: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Semerzier: 9 sig / 3 TD
Alex Caceres
Mackens Semerzier
40
Sig strikes landed
31
77
Sig strikes attempted
64
58
Total strikes landed
45
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
182s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner
Mackens Semerzier
"Da Menace"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30