Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Hathaway
Kris McCray
89%
11%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
17-3
Career record
Δ 28 pp
8-6
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Hathaway: 43 sig / 3 TD ·
McCray: 48 sig / 3 TD
John Hathaway
Kris McCray
46
Sig strikes landed
32
108
Sig strikes attempted
81
75
Total strikes landed
49
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
225s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Hathaway
"The Hitman"
17-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L2
Kris McCray
"Savage"
8-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—