Welterweight
Johny Hendricks vs TJ Waldburger
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Johny Hendricks
TJ Waldburger
50%
50%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 6"
75"
28
Age
Δ 5y
23
18-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-9
L1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hendricks: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Waldburger: 3 sig / 0 TD
Johny Hendricks
TJ Waldburger
21
Sig strikes landed
22
37
Sig strikes attempted
44
49
Total strikes landed
45
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
141s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W1
TJ Waldburger
17-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—