Middleweight
Mario Miranda vs Aaron Simpson
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mario Miranda
Aaron Simpson
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
32
Age
Δ 5y
37
14-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
12-6
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Miranda: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Simpson: 59 sig / 10 TD
Mario Miranda
Aaron Simpson
38
Sig strikes landed
36
83
Sig strikes attempted
71
56
Total strikes landed
55
1.5
Takedowns landed
2.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
190s
Control time
232s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mario Miranda
14-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
L2
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
12-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—