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Heavyweight

Sean McCorkle vs Christian Morecraft

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis ·Climate Pledge Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Sean McCorkle
Christian Morecraft
49% 51%
Why
81"
Reach
81"
35
Age
Δ 10y
24
17-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
McCorkle: 8 sig / 1 TD · Morecraft: 22 sig / 1 TD
Sean McCorkle
Christian Morecraft
22
Sig strikes landed
24
47
Sig strikes attempted
57
53
Total strikes landed
43
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
221s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
30%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Sean McCorkle

17-8
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
Blue corner
L1

Christian Morecraft

8-4
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—