Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Waylon Lowe
Nik Lentz
27%
73%
Why
30
Age
Δ 4y
27
17-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
31-12-2
W2
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Lowe: 46 sig / 4 TD ·
Lentz: 51 sig / 0 TD
Waylon Lowe
Nik Lentz
18
Sig strikes landed
27
43
Sig strikes attempted
66
41
Total strikes landed
55
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
220s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Waylon Lowe
17-7
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W3
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 4
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—