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Bantamweight

Michael McDonald vs Edwin Figueroa

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis ·Climate Pledge Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Michael McDonald
Edwin Figueroa
83% 17%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
20
Age
Δ 6y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
McDonald: 51 sig / 5 TD · Figueroa: 45 sig / 0 TD
Michael McDonald
Edwin Figueroa
43
Sig strikes landed
32
85
Sig strikes attempted
69
60
Total strikes landed
45
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
194s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Michael McDonald

"Mayday"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20
Blue corner

Edwin Figueroa

"El Feroz"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27