Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Anthony Johnson
Dan Hardy
64%
36%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 20 sig / 4 TD ·
Hardy: 2 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Johnson
Dan Hardy
35
Sig strikes landed
21
73
Sig strikes attempted
60
52
Total strikes landed
36
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Anthony Johnson
"Rumble"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L2
Dan Hardy
"The Outlaw"
25-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—