Light Heavyweight
Phil Davis vs Rogerio Nogueira
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Phil Davis
Rogerio Nogueira
80%
20%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
26
Age
Δ 8y
35
18-4
Career record
Δ 14 pp
23-11
W4
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Davis: 42 sig / 4 TD ·
Nogueira: 8 sig / 0 TD
Phil Davis
Rogerio Nogueira
36
Sig strikes landed
21
78
Sig strikes attempted
58
60
Total strikes landed
39
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
6.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
307s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
L1
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—