Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Thomas Diagne
Aaron Lanfranco
53%
47%
Why
28
Age
Δ 3y
24
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Thomas Diagne
Aaron Lanfranco
38
Sig strikes landed
47
100
Sig strikes attempted
106
50
Total strikes landed
64
0.5
Takedowns landed
4.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
71s
Control time
229s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thomas Diagne
6-7-1
Career record
Height
73"
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce Challengers 9
—
Blue corner
Aaron Lanfranco
0-0
Career record
Age
25