Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Gonzalez
David Douglas
83%
17%
Why
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nick Gonzalez
David Douglas
41
Sig strikes landed
42
94
Sig strikes attempted
101
53
Total strikes landed
59
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
182s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Gonzalez
"The Ghost"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
W1
David Douglas
"Tarzan"
10-7
Career record
Height
71"
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 11
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