Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Drew Pendleton
Dennis Dombrow
81%
19%
Why
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Drew Pendleton
Dennis Dombrow
44
Sig strikes landed
46
97
Sig strikes attempted
95
84
Total strikes landed
59
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Drew Pendleton
0-0
Career record
Age
27
Blue corner
Dennis Dombrow
0-0
Career record
Age
25