Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Erik Apple
Ryan Larson
69%
31%
Why
34
Age
Δ 3y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Erik Apple
Ryan Larson
47
Sig strikes landed
43
106
Sig strikes attempted
100
64
Total strikes landed
59
0.9
Takedowns landed
3.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Erik Apple
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Ryan Larson
0-0
Career record
Age
30